US Withdrawal from NATO: Can the Alliance Survive?

US Withdrawal from NATO: A Deepening Rift

The ongoing conflict in Iran has exposed a deepening rift within the transatlantic alliance, raising questions about the alliance's ability to endure. United States President Donald Trump's disdain for NATO allies dates back to even before he became president, with concerns over their relatively low defence spending and recent threats to take control of Greenland.

The decision of NATO allies not to join Trump's war on Iran has further deepened the fracture, with analysts saying that the conflict has become a 'trans-Atlantic stress test'. Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany described the situation as 'unprecedented', highlighting the need for the alliance to re-evaluate its priorities.

Experts warn that NATO can no longer put off the central question of whether the alliance can survive, especially if the US pulls out. Jim Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, stated that 'there will be no return to business as usual in NATO, during neither this US administration nor the next one'. He added that 'we are closer to a break than we have ever been.'

However, Trump cannot pull the US out of the alliance on a whim. To formally do so, he needs a two-thirds majority in the US Senate or an act of Congress, scenarios that are unlikely to come to pass any time soon. But there are other things Trump can do, such as moving the 84,000 American troops spread across Europe out of the continent or ceasing military coordination with allies.

The US can also withdraw its security guarantees to Europe, which have undergirded NATO since its founding. Such disengagement would do significant damage to the alliance, eroding its credibility as an effective alliance. Stefano Stefanini, a former Italian ambassador to NATO, stated that 'he doesn't need to leave NATO to undermine it; by just saying he might, he has already eroded its credibility.'

Despite these challenges, allies are not helpless. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has revealed the weakened state of European defence industries and their deep reliance on the US. In response, European allies have increased their defence expenditure by more than 62 percent between 2020 and 2025. However, areas where Europe suffers from overdependence on the US include the ability to strike deep into enemy territory, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, space-based capabilities, logistics, and integrated air and missile defence.

Some experts believe that a European NATO is possible, with NATO becoming a structure for military cooperation between European countries. Minna Alander, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, stated that NATO can survive the Iran war and even a US withdrawal as European members have an incentive to maintain it, even in a radically different form.

The deadline for NATO to reconstitute its forces sufficiently to attack NATO territory is estimated to be 2029, according to Germany's chief of defence, General Carsten Breuer. Others estimate that Moscow could pose that threat as early as 2027.

Stefanini also highlighted that the debate about NATO is often 'twisted' to portray the alliance's raison d'être as solely in function of protecting Europe from Russia, as a US favour to the continent. He stated that NATO was a network of alliances born at the onset of the Cold War against the Soviet Union, and that the US fought to attract into the alliance as many countries as possible, treating those that refused as friends of the enemy.