US Fertility Rate Hits All-Time Low Amid Two-Decade Decline

Fertility Rate Hits New Low

The United States has seen a significant drop in fertility rate, with a nearly 23 percent decline since 2007. The trend has been ongoing for two decades, with the latest data showing a one percent drop in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Experts Weigh In

Experts attribute the decline to various factors, including changing priorities among younger women and socioeconomic factors such as anxiety over the cost of living and the affordability of housing and childcare.

A study by the Economic Policy Institute found that the average cost of childcare in California was nearly $22,000 per year, while in Alabama it was around $8,000. However, the institute noted that even in states with lower costs of living, the cost of childcare is still a significant burden for many families.

Impact on Policy

Falling birth rates have caught the attention of policymakers, with some seeking to roll out tools to incentivize young couples to have children. The administration of President Donald Trump has promised to embrace pro-birth policies, but has also paired these efforts with reductions in access to government healthcare and social programs.

Trump has suggested that existing federal programs be offloaded onto states, which have varying resources. However, some experts have raised concerns that this approach could exacerbate existing inequalities and leave vulnerable populations without access to essential services.

Global Context

Falling birth rates have also been a topic of concern in Western countries, with some far-right politicians using the issue to promote a narrative that white majorities could be 'replaced' by migrants from non-Western countries. The number of babies born in the US in 2025 saw a slight drop of about one percent, down to 3.6 million.