Iran's Potential Capture of Missing Airman Raises Leverage Concerns Against US

Iran's Capture of Missing Airman Raises Leverage Concerns Against US

The downing of a U.S. fighter jet over Iranian territory and the intense search for one of its crew members has raised concerns that the airman could be captured and provide Iran with a potent asset that it could use for leverage against the United States.

The rescue operation for the missing airman was in its second day on Saturday, with not only American troops conducting an all-out search but the Iranian military also trying to find the crew member, according to three Iranian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.

In one indication of Iran’s eagerness to find the airman, an anchor for a local affiliate of Iran’s state broadcaster read a statement on Friday on television calling on residents to capture the “enemy’s pilot or pilots” and turn them over alive to security forces for a reward.

The possibility that Iran could capture the airman raises the specter of a replay of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, a traumatizing event in American history that laid the foundation for nearly five decades of hostile U.S.-Iranian relations.

The crisis, in which militant students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran and kept 52 Americans captive for 444 days, set a template for Iran that it would perfect in the coming decades as a way to capture global headlines, inflict pain on its adversaries and extract concessions.

Since 1979, Iran’s government has repeatedly used hostage-taking as a tactic against its adversaries. It has detained Americans, Europeans and other foreign citizens, sometimes imprisoning them for years before releasing them, often in exchange for cash or the release of its own citizens imprisoned abroad. It has used hostages as propaganda tools and to establish leverage.

Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a research organization, said Iran could take one of two tacks if it manages to capture the airman.

If the capture remains secret, the Iranians could approach the United States privately and cut a behind-the-scenes deal, demanding concessions in exchange for the crew member’s secret release. Or Iran could parade the airman in front of the cameras as propaganda.

Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute, pointed to a 2007 incident in which Iran captured British sailors, saying their vessels had trespassed in Iranian waters. The sailors were blindfolded, threatened and subjected to psychological pressure before giving videotaped statements in which they seemed to apologize. But there was no report of physical harm to them, Mr. Alfoneh noted.

“Then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad maximized international media coverage as he announced their release, and personally shook their hands,” Mr. Alfoneh said in an email. He added that the treatment of the American airman would likely be different, given that the United States and Iran are at war.

Even if the missing crew member is brought to safety, the episode underscores the risks of conducting missions over hostile territory against an adversary with the ability to retaliate. Rescue operations are inherently dangerous because additional American service members are put at risk.

A U.S. Black Hawk helicopter involved in the search was hit by ground fire on Friday but escaped safely. And a second combat plane, an A-10 Warthog, crashed in the Persian Gulf region, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The pilot in that plane was rescued.