Iran Threatens Bab al-Mandeb Closure: Global Trade Implications

Iran Threatens to Close Bab al-Mandeb, Disrupting Global Trade

A top adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has warned that Iranian allies could shut the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a crucial waterway for global oil trade. The threat comes as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped in peacetime.

The Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a vital route for Saudi Arabia to send its oil to Asia. If the chokepoint were shut, along with the Strait of Hormuz, a quarter of the world's energy and a giant chunk of Asia's exports to Europe would be blocked.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and veteran diplomat, warned on X that 'the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz'. He wrote that 'if the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.'

The threat follows US President Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges if Tehran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said that Hormuz is open to ships from countries that negotiate safe passage – apart from the US and Israel.

But if Bab al-Mandeb were closed, it would impact more than the ongoing war – it could compound the global energy supply crisis sparked by the conflict, deepening the economic turmoil being felt in factories, kitchens, and at petrol stations around the world.

The Bab al-Mandeb is a 29km-wide strait between Yemen to its northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest. It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then extends into the Indian Ocean.

The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have shown they can block it. During Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, they blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for what they described as ships associated with Israel or the US.

Recent days have shown how easy it would be for the Houthis to repeat the disruption during the war on Gaza. Since late March, the Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel, pointing to their effective entry into the war – for now, against Israel, not the US.

Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and the president of Girton College at Cambridge University, told Al Jazeera that if the Red Sea strait is blocked, it would create a 'nightmare scenario'. 'Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe.'